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Having scored nine times in his initial seven league matches, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a term - he registered 11 strikes in his initial seven matches in 2022-23 and ten in the previous campaign - it nevertheless places him three strikes clear in the opening stages for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this zero of his nine conversions have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the prize so early in the season.

First, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, equally significant, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the slow start his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) represents how many goals a English league attacker has traditionally converted from the total and standard of chances he has had.

It is not a statistic haphazardly selected by statistical experts, but by Premier League history.

And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this campaign from normal play, the Scandinavian attacker is obtaining considerably more good opportunities to score than every other footballer.

In fact, even if Haaland didn't excel at converting opportunities than any other player in the league, he would still have scored significantly more goals as the remainder of the league.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by examining the quantity and caliber of scoring situations that players have had in the top flight so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this term, 12 more than every other footballer.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the previous two campaigns (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the previous term).

What is, however remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this term. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

What that figure means is that players have historically converted the efforts he's registered at a 27% success ratio.

Among footballers attempting at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to convert per attempt - because of a couple of tap-ins against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the start of last season.

Essentially, the chances he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Opening a term so powerfully is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last campaign he had scored 10 goals - four more than anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Liverpool forward who claimed the top scorer award with 29 conversions, seven more than the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this stage last season.

Indeed this has been the quietest start to a Premier League season the Egyptian attacker has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has started slowly either. When examining at the highest eleven attackers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the additional ten attackers collectively so far.

Whether due to injuries - multiple prominent forwards - protracted transfer stories in one particular striker's situation or merely because their clubs have faced difficulties (several proven attackers), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European Golden Shoe that is given to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?

That competition is considerably more open at this early stage because two world-class strikers have likewise begun in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the three players without yet taking any spot-kicks positions him as the likely winner.

But since the English and French stars are some of the most excellent goal-scorers in European football in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the race is certainly on.