Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
